How do the webinars work? What time do they start and stop? How much are they? How do I register? Etc.
After I order one of your courses, are you available for follow-up questions?
Absolutely. You can email me anytime and I will respond within 24 hours. I’m also available for chats on Skype. I want every person who goes through my material to fully understand it so he or she has the best chance possible of succeeding in this business. I never mind answering questions even if they are novice questions from beginning traders. Everyone has to start somewhere and I remember what it was like when I first began trading.
Have you taught anyone who is now making a living trading?
Yes. I have taught people who now earn a living from trading full-time. Some are small traders and some trade quite a bit of size. I do not take credit for their success as they all put in a lot of time and effort but they would all tell you they turned the corner after seriously studying my material. The people who are most likely to succeed are the ones who embrace the idea of reading the order flow and then stare at their screens for hours every day. I can show you things which you may not learn for a year or more on your own (if ever) and help bridge the gap between understanding the big picture and understanding the ultra short-term picture. However, there’s no substitute for experience and you have to be willing to put in the work. On my testimonials page, you can listen to interviews with several profitable students.
How long will it take me to be profitable?
It depends on a number of factors and you may become successful or you may not. Having a sound methodology is obviously crucial to long-term success but your personal circumstances and psychology will also play a role in whether or not you make it as a trader. If you have a decent bankroll and can afford to sit there every day and study the markets, the odds are much better than if you are working a normal job from 9 to 5 and trying to trade sporadically every couple of days or trying to trade overnight in some thin market which offers little opportunity. I’m not saying you can’t learn to trade while also working a normal job. I’m saying the learning process is obviously going to take more time. In addition, I can help you understand when you should and shouldn’t be involved but I cannot prevent you from clicking the mouse when you’re bored. Knowing when to stay out is as important as knowing when to fire.
If I gain some consistency, how much can I expect to make?
This depends on a number of factors and there is no definitive answer. Anyone who tells you that you can average x number of dollars every day like clockwork is lying to you or delusional. Profitability comes in waves largely due to market conditions so you may make 40 ticks on a fantastic day when the market is in Grand Prix mode and then be lucky to get 2 ticks during a day when absolutely nothing is happening and there’s zero volatility. The trick is being able to capitalize on good conditions and then preserve that capital during poor conditions. It has to be viewed from a year-end perspective. I discuss this more in my blog, “What’s it all about?”.
Why do you like the U.S. treasuries? They seem slow in comparison to other markets.
The short answer is that I simply think they are easier to read than most other markets. I also think the Bund, Bobl and Eurostoxx are good markets as well and most people don’t know this but corn can be a very good trade. However, the commissions are high in the grain markets and that means less of an edge to retail traders. Fast markets are not always good markets to trade but the treasuries are not always slow. There are days when they rock and roll and the daily range is very wide. In general, they do tend to be slower than, for example, the equity markets but thicker markets are often easier to read. The treasuries and the Eurex markets are cheaper to trade than the equity markets. Bonus one. Bonus two is that I often make trades in the treasuries which do not even go one tick against me. This can happen in the ES but not nearly as frequently. I like knowing I have size behind me when I’m right and being fairly sure that if the market does blow right through me, I’m probably on the wrong side and can exit or possibly even reverse with confidence. It’s very much about risk to reward and what kind of a read there is to be had. Some people do not mind risking 6 to make 9 in the ES. They will hear no argument from me if it works for them. I do take trades in the ES at times and demonstrate them in my course material. I just think the treasuries are a better trade overall. Some previous webinar attendees have taken my concepts and implemented them into their own strategies for trading oil (and showed me the trades). I do not trade oil nor advise it to new traders but these attendees convincingly demonstrated how the order flow in CL can sometimes tip them off to a future move. It all depends on what suits you. Once you begin to understand the fundamental driving forces and you get a grip on why the markets do what they do, you will understand how you can apply the methodology to whatever market you want to trade.
What about high frequency trading programs and algorithms? Is it even possible to compete anymore?
You can still compete and there is money to be made but you cannot compete on the millisecond level nor constantly be looking only for the next tick. The idea as a retail trader is not to be first in line and then scratch if it doesn’t immediately go in your favor and do this thousands of times per day like an HFT program. It’s not even feasible unless you own a seat and pay nearly zero in commissions. The idea is to locate prices where the pressure may be building and the dam may break. Then you try to get onboard before the dam breaks or ride that wave as it’s breaking. The HFTs are trying to take advantage of every back and forth movement and that’s a game that a retail trader cannot win.
What about OTC (Over-The-Counter) transactions, dark pools, cash market transactions, etc.? Is there enough transparency to make an educated decision?
The futures markets are some of the most transparent markets you can trade and an enormous amount of liquidity is available most of the time. While there are OTC transactions going off which you cannot see, those transactions do not account for much of the total volume. For example, if you will look at the total volume executed on Clearport on the CME, you will see that it accounts for a tiny fraction of the total daily volume in any market on the CME. Compare this with the currency market where nearly all of the volume is done OTC in the interbank market. Hence the reason I do not advocate trading Forex. The stock market is also not as transparent due to the number of order routing systems and various ways of executing orders. Transparency in the futures markets is, at least at the moment, not an issue.
Do you think anyone can learn to do this successfully?
Yes and no. Zero formal education is required. That’s for sure. It can actually be a hindrance. The only thing to understand is that money moves the market and the objective is to buy low and sell high. Of course, that is easier said than done. Can anyone learn the game? Yes. I think so. But consistently beating the game is an entirely different subject. For starters, you almost have to have a complete disregard for money. This sounds counter-intuitive because the entire game is about money but if you start thinking about what the money can buy in the real world, you will lose. Guaranteed. You can’t drop $1500 trading and instantly think, “There went next month’s rent”. On the flip side, you also have to understand how fast you can lose money and be as risk averse as possible. Only you’re not being risk averse in order to make sure you can pay your rent. You’re being risk averse in order to win the game. Winning or losing is based on P&L. So you go for profit in order to win and not because you want to trade your way into a new Mercedes. You try to avoid losses because you don’t want to lose the game and not because you’re scared of losing a month’s pay. It’s a weird dichotomy which is apparent not just in trading but in many different aspects of life. You can’t be the heavyweight boxing champion of the world if you’re scared to take a punch but you also can’t just stand there and take multiple blows to the head…